White sugar trend probability

Dust has been determined. 6.04 million tons is official data. It is true and true. It is neither 580 nor 650, let alone 700. When the land area has been difficult to effectively increase, the data is reasonable. The chairman said to make a living, so research can not become sightseeing.

The smoke dispersed and the geese left their voices. There was a period of past events that was destined to become history. Once a place of chicken feathers, it will eventually become the past, and the market will enter a brand new unipolar era. The advent of a new era is both welcome and sad. The advantage is that the future management of sugar will become more intuitive and effective, and more efficient; The sad thing is that the sugar market or the beginning of the oligarchic era, the market is also moving toward the small ice age, without the taste of the opponent's loneliness and defeat, it is not easy to believe that anyone, unless the price has been extremely distorted, Now there's no sign of that.

Sugar is not an Apple. Although they have all been notorious for "sugar Gaozong" and "what", the sugar market is already very mature, there is no so-called delivery problem, and there is no futures that understand Apple. Those who understand futures do not understand problems such as apples. Therefore, Apple's "violence" should also be unrelated to sugar. The daily transaction amount of 252.8 billion yuan is also unrelated to sugar, but it can be explained that this market is not short of money. As long as it can have a fulcrum, Speculators can pry the earth apart. So sugar, what you need is a fulcrum. Now look, fulcrum is not.

Beet sugar has suddenly become a killer in the past two years. If this tool is used well, it is a good tool. Whoever controls more resources will be inclined to whom the control power of the future will be tilted, because this is one of the weaknesses. Raw sugar is also a short plate, but it is always separated from the mountains, and there is a policy in the middle of the bar. It is not easy to control, but beet sugar can move freely, which may be the difference between sugar and Apple in delivery.

The biggest shortage is raw sugar, India's record production, a lot of sugar waiting to be exported, but not to come out, this slow removal of stocks, a kind of torture, and therefore why the recent drought in Brazil, The reason for the hesitancy is that Brazil's real rainy season has not yet arrived.

The trend in the global sugar market is well known. This is already a large probability event, but small probability events can not be ignored because it often starts in a small time. This small probability event is most likely a weather problem. Some people say to Chuang Tzu, the weather is not a bet, of course, the weather is not a bet, there is a situation, but investment or speculation, which one is certain? All capital paths should be a matter of probability.

Now the local government is subsidizing the double-high base. It should be a pilot observation stage. Success will be widely promoted. If it is not successful, it will change another model. In short, increasing the supply of sugarcane and reducing the planting cost is a major direction. But since the two-high base already has subsidies, it is doubtful whether there will be a question of double subsidies for possible future supplements. So now I think it's a little far, a little big.

Or that: "The original sugar is unstable, the market is not open." The current price of Zheng Sugar has become a chicken rib, with a dilemma between the upper and lower levels and a range of shocks. To change, you have to wait for a vent, which is most likely the weather. Although not gambling.

From: Guangxi Sugar Network